A few people have talked about instituting a way to exchange mana for real money, such as here:

https://manifold.markets/Nils/will-there-be-a-way-to-exchange-man

https://manifold.markets/MichaelWheatley/how-much-is-m100-worth

I don't know anything about this area of law, but if it's illegal for Manifold themselves to buy back mana due to anti-gambling regulations, I imagine it might also be illegal for individual users to do so. (Or maybe legal for those users, but illegal for Manifold to not take action against them.)

The condition is met if there's an easy way for users to turn their mana into USD or another real-world currency. "Easy" meaning that someone with no special technical skills can reasonably do it in under 3 minutes of work per transaction, under 24 hours of latency, and under 10 minutes of effort for any one-time setup costs.

If Manifold themselves finds a way to offer this, that doesn't count. It must be some third party.

If the condition is never met by the beginning of 2024, this market resolves to N/A. If the condition is met and I hear about any legal issues, this market resolves to YES. If I don't hear about any legal issues by 2024, it resolves to NO.

(If someone impliments this but then Manifold asks them to take it down, or they take it down for some other reason before there's a chance to have legal issues, that doesn't count.)