At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Question

If Eliezer believes that there's at least a 75% chance of an AI existential risk coming to pass within the next 50 years, this resolves YES. (Other interpretations of p(doom) don't matter.)

I'll resolve the market based on public statements from them in the previous and subsequent few months. Eliezer doesn't like putting explicit probabilities on this, so I'll attempt to infer their beliefs from their more subjective statements.

Resolves N/A in the event that Eliezer is no longer alive/conscious or AI doom has already occurred.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 55% chance (219 traders, as of Mar 8, 2026).