Will the United States acquire or gain sovereignty over any part of Greenland by March 31, 2026?

Question

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the United States acquires or gains sovereignty over any part of Greenland by March 31, 2026. This includes:

A formal transfer of sovereignty through purchase, treaty, or other legal mechanism

Military occupation resulting in de facto U.S. control of any territory

Any arrangement where the U.S. exercises governmental authority over Greenlandic territory

The market resolves NO if no such acquisition or sovereignty transfer occurs by the deadline. Resolution will be determined by official statements from the U.S. State Department, Danish government, or Greenlandic authorities, or by credible international news reporting of any territorial change.

Background

President Trump has promised to steadily increase tariffs on European countries that have opposed his move to acquire Greenland, with tariffs set to increase to 25 percent on June 1 if a deal is not reached for the "Complete and Total purchase of Greenland." Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been directed to come up with a proposal in the coming weeks to purchase Greenland, describing such a plan as a "high priority" for Trump.

Greenland's Prime Minister Múte B. Egede has affirmed the island's sovereignty and said it wants to keep moving forward with its independence movement, stating "We don't want to be Danish, we don't want to be American, we want to be Greenlandic." According to the latest poll published in January of last year, 85 percent of Greenlanders oppose the territory joining the US, while only 6 percent were in favour.

Under the self-government act, the island can gain independence via a referendum with approval from the Danish Parliament. In 2023, Greenland unveiled its first draft constitution, calling for the creation of a Greenlandic republic, independence from Denmark, and recognition of the island's Inuit heritage.

Considerations

Any attempt to change Greenland's status would require congressional consent. Even rhetorical threats against the territory of a NATO ally also risk undermining the alliance itself, a red line for many US lawmakers. House Speaker Mike Johnson, one of Trump's top allies, notably dismissed any assertion that the U.S. would use military action to acquire Greenland, saying "I don't think anybody's seriously considering that. And in the Congress, we're certainly not."

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 2% chance (29 traders, as of Mar 20, 2026).