Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?

Question

Criteria for Resolution:

1. Definition of "New Country":

- A "new country" refers to any country that is not being invaded and/or at least partially occupied by Russia or its proxies as of June 11, 2024. This excludes Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia. Syria is also included for the sake of consistency, while there may be ambiguity on the correspondence of its case to the formal definitions given in this description.

2. Definition of Invasion:

- Invasion includes declared wars, proxy wars, non-declared wars, or actions described by Russia as “sending volunteers with tanks to help Russian-speaking resistance.” There must be a de-facto invasion involving Russian troops.

- The invaded country must at least officially acknowledge that it is being invaded by Russia or its proxies.

3. Criteria for Invasion:

- De-Facto Invasion: The presence of Russian troops or proxies on the territory of the invaded country, engaging in military actions.

- Official Acknowledgment: The government of the invaded country must officially acknowledge the invasion by Russia or its proxies.

- No Requirement for Resistance: If the invaded country refuses to fight back, it will still be considered an invasion as long as there is an official acknowledgment.

Update 2026-04-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Little green men" (unmarked Russian soldiers/special forces) count as Russian troops for the purposes of satisfying the de-facto invasion criteria.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 53% chance (63 traders, as of Nov 3, 2026).