Will Juvenile Life Without Parole (JLWOP) sentencing become a major political priority for either party before 2030?

Question

⚠️ WARNING: Resolves based on subjective judgement!

The USA is currently the only country in the world that sentences people to life in prison without parole for crimes committed before turning 18.

As of February 10th, 2023, 31 states allow JLWOP sentencing, of which 24 states have at least one person actively serving a JLWOP sentence.

To resolve yes, JLWOP must be a major political priority for the national Republican and/or Democratic parties (so, not just a state-level issue). Parties can take any stance on JLWOP — seeking to defend it, reform it, or end it entirely.

Political fads count — if this is an issue that everyone cares about for a couple weeks (maybe in reaction to a controversial sentence or a pending supreme court case), this question will resolve YES so long as there is evidence that messaging/legislating/etc around JLWOP was prioritized by national party leadership.

Non-exhaustive list of criteria that may influence my judgement:

Social media posts and/or official statements by national party leadership

Substantial legislative efforts (bills that find sponsors, make it out of committee, etc)

Current events coverage in the mainstream media (thinkpieces/retrospectives/op-eds don't count unless politicians are involved)

Relevant info about market creator (won't affect resolution — but in the interest of bias disclosure, given how subjective this market is)

I have a personal interest in JLWOP, but no professional background in criminal justice or advocacy. I monitor the issue closely (google news alerts etc)

My personal belief is that JLWOP sentencing should be abolished at the state and federal level in all circumstances

I will not bet on this market

Other JLWOP markets:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Hyperstition/when-will-the-united-states-end-juv?r=SHlwZXJzdGl0aW9u)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 28% chance (7 traders, as of Jan 11, 2026).