Will I be able to book a commercial electrical flight between London and New York in 2032?

Question

The price needs to be lower than a business-class flight today, £8k, inflation-adjusted.
If the flight is driven by part fossil fuel and part electrical flight it does not count (except for reaching cruise altitude, see the comments' discussion in 2020 companion market).

See the same question for 2040 below.

(https://manifold.markets/embed/HenriThunberg/will-i-be-able-to-book-a-commercial)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 7% chance (36 traders, as of May 30, 2026).