Will the ICJ punish/charge Israel of commiting genocide or attempting to commit genocide by the end of 2026?

Question

This is a follow up to my older question:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/HenriConfucius/will-the-icj-punishcharge-israel-of?play=true)Only the Acts A) and D) , listed on Article III of the Genocide Convention will count (Linked). Incitation, conspiracy or complicity (B,C,E) aren't the scope of this question,  and won't resolve it as YES.

This market will resolve either by:

1) Court verdict by the ICJ, reported officially or by the majority of large news vehicles.

2) No verdict by the end of 2026. Will resolve as NO.

[image]I will not bet on this market to take out any possible Bias. If there's any questions, important information, and even news of a resolution,  feel free to comment and message me.

Genocide Convention:

https://www.ohchr.org/en/instruments-mechanisms/instruments/convention-prevention-and-punishment-crime-genocide

Definition and explanation of genocide:

https://www.un.org/en/genocide-prevention/definition

Previous ICJ judge decisions

https://cld.irmct.org/notions/

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 4% chance (12 traders, as of May 22, 2026).