Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026):

Question

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to the outcome that best describes Iran's political situation by end of 2026. Resolution will be determined by assessing the primary governing structure and power dynamics in Iran as of December 31, 2026, based on credible reporting from international news sources, government statements, and expert analysis.

Unyielding Islamic Regime: The clerical system remains in control with minimal structural change to governance or ideology, effectively no concessions to the coalition or protestors. Pre war status quo or even more radicalism.

Deal with minor concessions: A negotiated settlement between the regime and the coalition/protestors, involving small compromises on nuclear program, sanctions relief, or political reforms, equal to or inferior to the Obama Deal.

Deal with major concessions: A negotiated settlement between the regime and the coalition/protestors, involving significant compromises on nuclear program, sanctions relief, or political reforms, equal to or superior to the pre war Trump demands.

Balkanization/long civil war: Iran fragments into competing regional or factional control with sustained armed conflict between multiple groups, akin to Balkans, Libya, Iraq, Syria, etc, which would render it incapable to finance and execute sophisticated missile or MOD programs. Armed conflicts should last over an year after US withdrawals, being more interested in chaos than a specific side winning.

Venezuela-style puppet state: No regime change, only amputation/pruning, but the regime is forced to bow to american demands and becomes effectively controlled by the US and dependant on it.

Military coup (Artesh): The regular armed forces (Artesh) seize control from clerical leadership and establish military rule, be it transitional or permanent.

Popular takeover: A grassroots movement successfully displaces the regime through sustained protests, strikes, popular uprising, takeover by militias, be it suppoeted by the coalition/artesh or not, creating transitional or permanent civillian rule,

Voluntary transition of power: The regime voluntarily transfers authority to a new civilian government through negotiated or constitutional means, without the need for a coup, a revolution, puppeting, etc.

Background

Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched extensive strikes against targets in Iran. The opening salvo killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of other top Iranian officials. The stated military objectives included preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, destroying its missile arsenal, degrading proxy networks, and annihilating its navy, alongside a desired political outcome of regime change from within.

Massive nationwide anti-government protests erupted in late December 2025, driven by economic crisis and currency collapse, becoming the largest in scale since the 1979 revolution. The protests reflect frustrations rooted in long-term corruption, economic mismanagement, political repression and declining living standards. The Iranian government responded with massacres of protesters, with the deadliest incidents occurring on January 8 and 10, 2026.

Considerations

Israeli strikes destroyed the building where Iran's Assembly of Experts was expected to meet on March 3, 2026, delaying Iran's ability to select a new supreme leader after Khamenei's death. This creates institutional uncertainty about succession mechanisms. The IRGC could potentially sideline clerical leadership and act as a kingmaker in constructing a new order, as seen in Egypt and Pakistan. Security forces remained loyal during the January 2026 protests, suggesting institutional cohesion despite external pressure. The outcome will depend on the interplay between sustained popular unrest, military institutional interests, and ongoing external military pressure.

Resolution criteria will be refined in 1 week after market creation.

This description was generated by AI.

Update 2026-03-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In cases where a secret deal is claimed but not confirmed, resolution will be based on Iran's actual behavior, potentially with an extended deadline. Key indicators include:

Whether attacks continue after US withdrawal

Whether Iran halts its ballistic missile and nuclear programs

How Iran treats its own population

Whether the government fractures due to internal disagreement over any deal

Default resolution in ambiguous cases will be Unyielding Islamic Regime. To avoid this, Iran must at minimum allow IAEA monitoring, cease attacks, and stop threatening the Strait of Hormuz (i.e., something at least equivalent to the Obama Deal).

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Deal with minimal concessions, followed by Unyielding Islamic Regime and Deal with major concessions are most likely. See the market for live updates (18 traders, as of Apr 9, 2026).