Will Reflect Orbital send 60 satellites into space by 2030?

Question

Recently featured in First Principles podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDV3v0Xb4ow

Also see here: https://www.reflectorbital.com/

In the podcast they claim that their second step will be to send 60 satellites into solar low earth orbit. Each with a 10 square meter mylar mirror.

Will they achieve that by 2030?

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 12% chance (7 traders, as of Jul 30, 2025).