Will a unified and inclusive state replace Israel and Palestinian Territories by May 14, 2048?

Question

The question will resolve to YES with the formal and internationally recognized establishment of a unified state, fulfilling the below conditions by May 14, 2048.

Conditions:

Territorial Control: A unified state exercising sovereignty over the territories currently known as the Gaza Strip, Israel, Jerusalem, and the West Bank.

Government Structure and Constitution: Creating a unified state also establishes a new government structure and adopts a new constitution, meaning the discontinuation or amalgamation of the current authorities of the West Bank, Israel, and the Gaza Strip, moving away from the existing political framework and creating a system granting equal rights* for all its citizens.

International Recognition: The United Nations, including all permanent Security Council members, recognizes the new state.

Disclaimer:

*This market aims to objectively predict the likelihood of a unified and equitable 'One-state solution.' It envisions a state committed to ensuring equal rights for all its citizens while at the same time acknowledging the possibility of specific rights that cater to the distinct needs of various ethnic and religious groups. Key issues such as the extent of repatriation rights and land restitution have, therefore, been intentionally left open, awaiting hypothetical future negotiations. For more details, refer to this comment thread.

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 5% chance (12 traders, as of Oct 5, 2025).