Which countries will withdraw or be barred from the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Question

Resolution Criteria

A country resolves YES if its national team officially withdraws from or is barred from competing in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Non-participation due to failure to qualify does not count (resolves NO).

Background

The 2026 FIFA World Cup will be hosted across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. In January 2026, geopolitical tension around U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed push to acquire Greenland triggered public and political calls in parts of Europe for a possible World Cup boycott. On January 17, 2026, Trump announced threatened 10% tariffs (rising to 25% later) on imports from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland in connection with the Greenland dispute—though he later said the tariff plans were withdrawn/delayed following talks on a NATO-linked framework.

In Germany, a BILD/INSA poll reported 47% support for boycotting the tournament if the U.S. were to take control of Greenland.  In the Netherlands, a petition has called on the KNVB to commit to withdrawing if the U.S. seizes Greenland.

Separately, Spanish officials raised the possibility of a boycott conditional on Israel qualifying and being allowed to participate. However, Israel later failed to qualify.

Clarifications

Update 2026-01-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Timing of resolution: The creator will wait until later in the summer 2026 competition before resolving countries that failed to qualify as NO, because replacement teams could potentially be added if qualified countries withdraw or are barred (similar to what happened at Euros 1992).

Update 2026-01-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that while this market is primarily about politically motivated boycotts, it will also count cases where teams are barred or withdraw while citing other reasons (to avoid adjudicating broader international politics). Any withdrawal or barring after qualification will resolve YES, regardless of the stated reason.

Update 2026-05-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If a team is unable to play their matches due to visa issues (i.e., not receiving visas in time), this will resolve YES, even if the team has not formally withdrawn or been officially barred.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Iran 🦁, followed by Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿  and Netherlands 🇳🇱  are most likely. See the market for live updates (122 traders, as of May 21, 2026).