President Trump grants clemency to Ghislaine Maxwell by midterms?

Question

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if President Trump grants clemency (pardon, commutation, or reprieve) to Ghislaine Maxwell before November 3, 2026. Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the White House or Department of Justice. The market resolves NO if no clemency is granted by the deadline.

Background

Maxwell is serving a 20-year prison sentence for federal sex-trafficking charges for her role in sexually exploiting and abusing minors with Epstein. In February 2026, Maxwell declined to answer questions from House lawmakers in a deposition but indicated that if President Trump ended her prison sentence, she was willing to testify that neither Trump nor former President Bill Clinton had done anything wrong in their connections with Epstein. The White House pointed to previous remarks from the president that indicated the prospect of a pardon was not on his radar, though Trump has not previously ruled out granting Maxwell clemency.

Considerations

Both Democrats and Republicans quickly pushed back after Maxwell made the clemency appeal. Maxwell remains incarcerated in federal prison with a projected release date in the 2030s unless her appeal succeeds or she receives clemency.

This description is AI, fool.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 7% chance (7 traders, as of May 15, 2026).