If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is NOT completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027?

Question

"Completed" doesn't require the publication of a peer-reviewed article, just notice from a relevant research team. Will resolve NA if a hep C human challenge trial IS completed by the end of 2024; see paired question.

(https://manifold.markets/embed/GavrielK/if-a-human-challenge-trial-for-a-he )

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 43% chance (5 traders, as of Nov 3, 2026).