If Trump is elected in 2024, will Joe Biden be indicted before 2029?

Question

Resolves N/A if former president Donald J. Trump does not win the 2024 US presidential election.

Otherwise, resolves YES if Joseph R. Biden Jr. is indicted before the 2029 presidential inauguration and after the 2025 presidential inauguration, and NO if he has not been indicted.

Update 2025-26-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification of Resolution Criteria:

Since Trump has been elected and the inauguration has passed, the market resolves based on whether Joe Biden is indicted before the 2029 presidential election.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 5% chance (36 traders, as of Nov 4, 2026).