https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/before-2035-will-there-exist-any-ai

, except that it resolves based on my judgment instead of 

 it to resolve the same, but this is not guaranteed and I will evaluate as independently as possible. I may copy clarifications from that market, but that is per my judgment.

The general bar for tasks it can be expected to perform is "what an intelligent human would find reasonably doable in the course of their own gameplay". Creating a simple redstone adder for very small numbers is something that I bet many Manifold users could figure out on their own with a bit of research, so that can be required of the AI. Creating a redstone computer that implements a Twitter clone on a 1024x1024 block display is not reasonable for a human to do without mods, so cannot be asked of the AI.

I reserve the right to edit these criteria in accordance with the spirit of the question: "Will we have an AI that can play Minecraft just as well as a human, including the social aspects of multiplayer?"