Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?

Question

This resolves YES if the IMO grand challenge is completed before the end of 2030 according to the rules on the site https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/ according to the IMO Grand Challenge committee. This requires an AI to generate machine-checkable proof of enough problems on one of the of the IMOs in 2023-2030 for a gold medal (there are more rules on the website).

This resolves NO if this has not happened at the start of 2031. It will also resolve NO if a few weeks after the IMO in 2030 there is nobody claiming that the IMO grand challenge has been solved.

This resolves N/A if the IMO grand challenge is either canceled or abandoned (e.g. there is a serious claim that the challenge is completed and nobody of the committee comments on the submission for multiple months).

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 89% chance (20 traders, as of Jul 18, 2026).