https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/why-do-you-disagree-that-nonhuman-i

In particular, the requirement of that poll that to claim to reject aliens based on reason, one must have "researched the topic for at least 20 hours by watching whistleblower testimony, reading books, and/or viewing serious, evidence-based documentaries (i.e. excluding 

I currently do not believe aliens have visited Earth. My reasoning for this is mostly logic-based rather than evidence-based, and even at that, it's not very well formed. Honestly, probably the biggest factor is that people I take seriously mostly do not take aliens-on-earth seriously. Anyway, none of that is the point. The point is I'm sceptical, but I have not spent anywhere near the 20 hours requirement that 

 thinks I need in order to reject a hypothesis for any reason other than "ignorance, anxiety, denial, or socialisation".

If I put in the 20 hours, will I think it was worth my time? Note that this market isn't about whether it'll change my mind - if I remain sceptical but I feel I've learned useful and interesting things, it still resolves YES. (But if it changes my mind it 

 resolves YES.) If I think it was a waste of my time, market resolves NO. If I do not spend 20 hours researching it, market resolves NA.

At market close, I will make a decision about whether I'm going to do the 20 hours of research. This decision will be informed by the current market percentage but will probably also have a random element. I'm not sure exactly how I'll run this, but as a rule of thumb, if the market is 60% or higher, I'll almost certainly do the research. If the market is 20% or lower, I almost certainly won't. 

Currently I am strongly of the opinion that the research would be a waste of my time. This is a bias that you should factor in. Hopefully if the evidence is really compelling, it'll be compelling enough to shift my current biased opinion. 

I won't bet in this market. Market remains open for a week. I don't make any promises about how long it'll take me to do the 20 hours of research, but I hope it won't take too long. I'll take suggestions from commenters on good places to start with the research, if you would like to offer them.