If the US strikes Iran, how many Americans will Iran kill?

Question

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to the total number of American citizens and military personnel killed by Iran by the end of 2026 conditional on a US military (kinetic) strike on Iranian territory. The count includes deaths from Iranian military, IRGC and any units mentioned here. Deaths from indirect consequences (e.g., economic disruption) do not count. Deaths by terror attacks count only if Iran takes full responsibility. If no US strike on Iran occurs by the end of 2026, the market resolves N/A. Resolution will be based on reliable sources as defined by Wikipedia.

Edit: I will bet on this market once probs stabilize

Edit: Buckets are inclusive (e.g. 1 resolves "1 - 5" and 5 resolves "1 - 5")

Update 2026-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The condition for a US strike on Iran has been satisfied. The market will now resolve based on the number of Americans killed by Iran according to the criteria in the description, and will not resolve N/A.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 6 - 100, followed by 101 - 1000 and 1001 - 10000 are most likely. See the market for live updates (39 traders, as of Oct 1, 2026).