Will the Oscars loosen rules on AI tool use by 2030?

Question

By the Oscars 2030 (102nd Oscars), will the rules be loosened or allow more AI usage than the current rules? For feature length films, general categories, not an AI-specific category.

Presently the rules require that performances and screen writing be human.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 44% chance (4 traders, as of Jun 15, 2026).