Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)

Question

Countries currently known to have nuclear weapons are the United States, Russia, United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel.

This includes wartime use, tests, peaceful use, etc. -- any detonation.

A nuclear detonation is a nuclear explosion in which the majority of the energy release comes from fission or fusion reactions rather than chemical reactions.

UTC time.

See also:
@/EvanDaniel/will-any-country-that-is-not-curren-ncdy4rg06s

@/IsaacKing/will-any-nuclear-weapon-be-detonate-602fc87e774f

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 6% chance (14 traders, as of Jul 24, 2026).