Will an above-ground nuclear test take place in 2026?

Question

The weapon must detonate, meaning nuclear yield exceeding chemical yield.

Offensive, peaceful, or accidental use is not included.

Previously:

@/EvanDaniel/will-an-aboveground-nuclear-test-ta

@/EvanDaniel/will-an-aboveground-nuclear-test-ta-6g0yu8nmo1

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 7% chance (12 traders, as of Jun 19, 2026).