Will a frontier model exfiltrate its own weights by EoY 2028?

Question

The recent OpenAI / HuggingFace hack incident saw a frontier model create advanced persistent threats, set up persistence mechanisms, store data for continuity, and... I don't think we know the full story yet.

Will we see a model exfiltrate its own weights?

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 29% chance (24 traders, as of Sep 20, 2026).