Which comes first: 1GW of solar in orbit, or on the Moon?

Question

Nameplate capacity, total across all users.

Best estimates -- if we can find a single source using consistent methods in advance, I may update to use that.

Moon is on the surface; orbit includes Lunar orbit.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Orbit and Moon are most likely. See the market for live updates (7 traders, as of Jun 10, 2026).