Above-ground nuclear explosion by EOY 2026?

Question

Majority of energy release from fission or fusion, not chemical. Nuclear detonation, not a reactor. In space counts. UTC time.

See also:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/EvanDaniel/will-an-aboveground-nuclear-test-ta-dPUQqQCtQL)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 9% chance (10 traders, as of Aug 1, 2026).