2028 Presidency: Vance, Newsom, or Other?

Question

Each option requires that the listed candidate both be nominated by their respective party and then win the election.

This is a derivative market, and will resolve according to these underlying markets:

@/EvanDaniel/who-will-be-elected-president-in-20-zA926yNPOA

@/DylanSlagh/who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-e7fd97afa9bf

@/DylanSlagh/who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-757313dd0344

Update 2025-10-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Independent or 3rd party wins are included in the "Other" option. The market does not separately track cases where Vance or Newsom are nominated vs. not and in independent wins.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Other (D) defeats Other (R), followed by Other (R) defeats Other (D) and Other (D) defeats Vance (R) are most likely. See the market for live updates (32 traders, as of Sep 2, 2026).