Will Trump be removed or resign from office before 2029?

Question

Resolves YES if Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029 via:

Impeachment and Senate conviction, OR

Resignation

Resolves NO if he completes his term (or leaves due to death or incapacitation).

Resolves N/A if the office of the presedency ceases to exist.

Update 2026-01-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Trump is removed via the 25th Amendment and it lasts for the remainder of his term, the market resolves YES.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 14% chance (20 traders, as of Oct 12, 2026).