Will Nayib Bukele's Anti-Gang strategy be seen as a positive model in 2030?

Question

Will Nayib Bukele's, President of El Salvador, Anti-Gang strategy been seen as a positive model (in reducing homicide and crime rate) in 2030?

Background: (Feb 2023) Nayib Bukele has initiated  aggressive policies punishing gang members. The homicide rate has drastically fallen in his first years of tenure, with 50% and 58% reduction year over year. At the same time, his tenure has been criticised as an example of democratic backsliding by the US government, and been reported to have made deals with the largest gang in El Salvador (MS13).

Resolution: This resolves subjectively to my own judgment, but I would ideally love to defer to experts who seem level headed and reliable.

Some reasons I could imagine this resolving positive:

The homicide rate continues to fall and stay low

The crime rate, GDP and quality of life metrics also trend in a positive direction

Other countries model similar strategies with similar success

Western security and foreign policy experts generally have a positive impression of him

Some Reasons this market could resolve negative:

The crime rate spikes drastically, erasing the progress made

The current government  is unstable

The current government seizes power and transitions  into authoritarianism

The crime rate, GDP and quality of life metrics also trend in a negative direction

There's some kind of 0 sum trade off with the reduction in homicides coming at the cost of something else

The homicide rate figures are incorrect and had been manipulated for political gain

Feb 25, 10:55pm: Will Nayib Bukele's Anti-Gang strategy been seen as a positive model in 2030? → Will Nayib Bukele's Anti-Gang strategy be seen as a positive model in 2030?

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 42% chance (13 traders, as of Apr 17, 2025).