Manifold held a charity drawing a couple days ago after a giveaway where users donated mana. I'm attempting to verify the results.

So far I have been unable to verify that the charity giveaway was fair.

They provided a nonce hash during the competition and I am satisfied that the nonce they have provided afterward is the one they used:

3ea815748b401ecf44e0565ff97577758861be9c4a4ce40e7e51bfec71b3e291

So far, this all checks out. The hash matches the revealed nonce. The hash did not change.

 requires the timestamps of the last 10 purchases in order to generate the random number. I was able to use the get-charity-giveaway-sales API which happens to include the last 10 purchases and their timestamps:

1772344608000
1772311000000
1772286202000
1772257983000
1772256780000
1772256743000
1772249295000
1772237930000
1772203754000
1772192331000

I used those timestamps and the code supposedly used to select the winner, and got a random value of 

 which, with the published total ticket sales of 

 tickets would correspond to a winning ticket of number 

However, the winning ticket shown on the page is the 2nd to last ticket purchased. It should correspond to a random value of roughly 0.997 (or whatever, I didn't calculate it exactly).

If Manifold (or anyone, or myself) convinces me the charity giveaway was fair before the end of the month, I'll resolve Yes. If I am not convinced by the end of the month, I will resolve No.

If Manifold announces a new winner or announces there was an error, this resolves No. If they do not change anything and no one convinces me the giveaway was fair, it resolves No.