If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

Question

An outcome is "okay" if it gets at least 20% of the maximum attainable cosmopolitan value that could've been attained by a positive Singularity (a la full Coherent Extrapolated Volition done correctly), and existing humans don't suffer death or any other awful fates.

This market is a duplicate of https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/if-we-survive-general-artificial-in with different options.  https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence-539844cd3ba1?r=RWxpZXplcll1ZGtvd3NreQ is this same question but with user-submitted answers.

(Please note:  It's a known cognitive bias that you can make people assign more probability to one bucket over another, by unpacking one bucket into lots of subcategories, but not the other bucket, and asking people to assign probabilities to everything listed.  This is the disjunctive dual of the Multiple Stage Fallacy, whereby you can unpack any outcome into a big list of supposedly necessary conjuncts that you ask people to assign probabilities to, and make the final outcome seem very improbable.

So:  That famed fiction writer Eliezer Yudkowsky can rationalize at least 15 different stories (options 'A' through 'O') about how things could maybe possibly turn out okay; and that the option texts don't have enough room to list out all the reasons each story is unlikely; and that you get 15 different chances to be mistaken about how plausible each story sounds; does not mean that Reality will be terribly impressed with how disjunctive the okay outcome bucket has been made to sound.  Reality need not actually allocate more total probability into all the okayness disjuncts listed, from out of all the disjunctive bad ends and intervening difficulties not detailed here.)

Update 2025-07-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding answer option E: This option will not be the resolution if the okay outcome is achieved through careful alignment work. Such a scenario would resolve to a different answer.

Update 2026-03-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding answer option L: Human-scale amounts of time for civilization crash and restart are irrelevant on fractional light cone scales when evaluating whether the 20% of optimal CEV threshold is met. The time delay from civilization restart does not preclude reaching the "okay outcome" threshold.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, B.  Humanity puts forth a tremendous effort, and delays AI for long enough, and puts enough desperate work into alignment, that alignment gets solved first., followed by J.  Something 'just works' on the order of eg: train a predictive/imitative/generative AI on a human-generated dataset, and RLHF her to be unfailingly nice, generous to weaker entities, and determined to make the cosmos a lovely place. and C.  Solving prosaic alignment on the first critical try is not as difficult, nor as dangerous, nor taking as much extra time, as Yudkowsky predicts; whatever effort is put forth by the leading coalition works inside of their lead time. are most likely. See the market for live updates (612 traders, as of Sep 26, 2026).