"I would currently bet that within 2-3 years we will see a system that gets GPT-4 performance and compute-efficiency whose source-code is extremely simple and does not require a lot of clever hacks, but whose difference from GPT-3 will be best characterized by "0 to 2 concrete insights that improved things", since that is exactly what we've seen with GPT-2 and GPT-3."

This market resolves to YES if such a system exists on or before January 1, 2026 (even if it is only known to have existed long afterwards).

If a system has GPT-4 performance and compute efficiency, but the arcitecture / source code is not public, that resolves to a no, by default. However, note that the market resolves in 2035, which gives some additional time for the source code of GPT-4 and similar to become public.