Global CO2 Emissions in 2026

Question

This market predicts the total global CO2 emissions for 2026, including emissions from fossil fuels, industry and land-use changes. It will resolve based on the data presented in this graph from Our World in Data, rounded to one decimal place. The figures presented by Our World in Data are derived from the Global Carbon Budget dataset. Final data for 2026 are expected to be published in 2027.

If necessary, I will add new answers to ensure there are always at least 10 answers above and below the one with the highest odds.

For comparison, the same market for the year before:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/EarthForecasts/global-co2-emissions-in-2025?play=true)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 41.5 billion tonnes, followed by 41.4 billion tonnes and 40.7 billion tonnes are most likely. See the market for live updates (4 traders, as of Sep 27, 2026).