Will Alireza Firouzja be World Chess Champion by end of 2040?

Question

As announced by FIDE

4/18/23 clarification: resolves YES is he is the WCC at any time before market close, not necissarily at market close

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 25% chance (16 traders, as of May 5, 2025).