Will over 1,000,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Question

See:

https://lifeview.com

https://www.gwern.net/Embryo-selection

Doesn't matter what the traits selected are; can be predicted health, personality traits, intelligence, criminality, whatever. Just matters that the embryo was selected based on not specific, simple criteria (i.e. how many chromosomes a fertilized egg has or whether or not it will have sickle cell disease) but more wide ranging quality of life or "child success" predictions.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 22% chance (12 traders, as of Jul 25, 2026).