Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Question

On February 27, 2026, President Trump ordered federal agencies to cease using Anthropic's technology (6-month phase-out), and Defense Secretary Hegseth designated Anthropic a "supply chain risk" — a label previously reserved for foreign adversaries like Huawei. This followed Anthropic's refusal to grant the Pentagon unrestricted use of Claude. The designation could pressure AWS, GCP, and Azure to sever their relationships with Anthropic entirely, since defense contractors must certify they don't use products from designated entities.

Anthropic currently depends heavily on all three hyperscalers: AWS (Project Rainier, Trainium clusters, $8B+ Amazon investment), GCP (up to 1M TPUs, tens of billions in committed spend), and Azure ($30B compute deal, $15B Microsoft/Nvidia investment). Anthropic uses this infrastructure both for its own API and for marketplace offerings like Bedrock and Vertex AI.

Resolution criteria:

This market resolves YES if, on August 27, 2026, Anthropic is running production Claude model infrastructure (training or inference) on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Microsoft Azure — whether for its own API, through a cloud marketplace, or both.

This market resolves NO if Anthropic has been fully removed from all three cloud platforms and is no longer running production workloads on any of them.

Clarifications:

1. What counts as "hosted on": Anthropic using the cloud provider's compute infrastructure to serve or train Claude models in production. This includes Anthropic's own api.anthropic.com if it runs on that provider's hardware, Claude being available through a provider's AI marketplace (Bedrock, Vertex AI, Azure AI Foundry), or Anthropic using the provider's chips (Trainium, TPUs, GPUs) for training runs.

2. What does NOT count: Anthropic employees using personal accounts, dev/test workloads, archived data sitting in storage, or a cloud provider reselling a competing model fine-tuned on Claude outputs.

3. Temporary disruptions: If hosting is interrupted but restored before August 27, this resolves YES. If hosting is in the active process of being wound down on August 27 but hasn't fully terminated, this resolves YES.

4. Partial severing: If one or two providers drop Anthropic but at least one still hosts them, this resolves YES. The bar is "at least one."

5. Legal proceedings: This market does not resolve based on court orders, legislation, or executive actions in themselves. It resolves solely based on whether Anthropic is actually running production workloads on at least one of the three cloud platforms on August 27, 2026, regardless of the legal mechanism that led to that state of affairs.

6. Geographic restrictions: If a cloud provider only hosts Anthropic in non-US regions (e.g., EU-only), this still counts as YES.

7. Corporate changes: If Anthropic is acquired and the acquirer continues running Claude on one of these clouds, YES. If Anthropic ceases operations entirely, NO.

Resolution source: Official announcements from Anthropic, AWS, Google Cloud, or Microsoft Azure; credible reporting from major outlets (Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters, etc.); or direct verification that api.anthropic.com or cloud marketplace endpoints are serving Claude models. In ambiguous cases, the question is: "Is Anthropic paying at least one of these three companies for production compute?"

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 98% chance (30 traders, as of Jul 2, 2026).