Extreme Nationalism and/or Race-Based Policies

Potential Indicators of Fascist Tendencies in the U.S. Under President Trump by December 31, 2025

Will President Trump significantly undermine democratic checks and balances by December 31, 2025?

Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to "Yes" if credible sources report actions such as overriding judicial decisions, suppressing congressional oversight, or significantly increasing executive power beyond traditional norms.

Will there be widespread government actions targeting political opponents, media, or dissenters beyond standard law enforcement by December 31, 2025?

Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to "Yes" if credible sources report mass arrests, show trials, significant expansion of surveillance against dissidents, or similar actions.

Will state-supported or encouraged political violence increase, or will the military be deployed for domestic suppression by December 31, 2025?

Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to "Yes" if credible sources report crackdowns on protests, extrajudicial violence, normalization of paramilitary groups, or similar actions.

4. Extreme Nationalism and Race-Based Policies:

Will the U.S. implement policies explicitly favoring one racial, ethnic, or nationalist identity over others by December 31, 2025?

Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to "Yes" if credible sources report large-scale ethnic deportations, race-based citizenship policies, or similar actions.

Will the government significantly increase control over private industry, media, and personal freedoms in ways characteristic of fascist states by December 31, 2025?

Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to "Yes" if credible sources report significant government intervention in private industries, media censorship, or similar actions.

Will there be major shifts toward single-party rule or significant restrictions on voting, civil liberties, or democratic processes by December 31, 2025?

Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to "Yes" if credible sources report actions such as significant voter suppression, dismantling of democratic institutions, or similar actions.

Ultimately, the assessment will be comparing the start of Trumps 2nd term to the end of 2025.

Each market will be assessed based on reports from credible news organizations (across the political spectrum), human rights organizations, political science experts, and government watchdog groups.

For a market to resolve "Yes", there must be substantial evidence that the described event (or systemic change) has occurred at a national level and is being widely recognized as such by multiple reputable sources.

If the evidence is ambiguous, disputed, or limited to isolated incidents without broader systemic impact, the market will resolve "No".

If significant uncertainty remains at the resolution date, the market may be extended or resolved as "N/A" until clearer information emerges.