Will the Supreme Court overturn any of Griswold, Lawrence, or Obergefell by 2040?

Question

> In future cases, we should reconsider all of this Court’s substantive due process precedents, including Griswold, Lawrence, and Obergefell. Because any substantive due process decision is “demonstrably erroneous,” we have a duty to “correct the error” established in those precedents. ~ Clarence Thomas

This question will resolve to yes if the Supreme court overturns any of the aforementioned rulings.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 13% chance (53 traders, as of Apr 24, 2026).