Chamath prediction: democrats lose one of California or New York by 2032?

Question

Predicted on all in podcast on 8th November.

https://youtu.be/xH76q6yYVlk

@ 27:14

Section starts at 25:55

I'll take it that he's referring to the presidential elections of 2028 or 2032.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 28% chance (9 traders, as of Oct 16, 2026).