 for the month of November. This means that I have to publish roughly 30 posts during November, mostly on AI safety and LLM evals in general. I have many drafts and rough ideas ready, but the actual writing will happen only during the month of November. I expect to publish at least 10 of them through 

; where they are sent to about 1000 subscribers. My usual cadence for posting is less than once per month. The remaining posts will go to 

https://newsletter.danielpaleka.com/p/ab-testing-could-lead-llms-to-retain

In the first 12 hours after publication, the post (or email) has been opened by 581 people. The stats tell me I have lost 3 subscribers and gained one new.  I have not posted it anywhere public except Substack (and now to Manifold).

Resolves YES if I have more subscribers in the evening of November 30 than before I published the first post on November 1. Resolves NO otherwise.

OpenAI’s updates of GPT-4o in April 2025 famously induced absurd levels of sycophancy: the model would agree with everything users would say, no matter how outrageous.