Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?

Question

This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format. The probabilites of each answer are independent of the other answers. Individual answers can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open.

Any person who appears in Wikipedia's "major candidates" section, at any time, for the 2028 Republican Party presidential primaries will resolve YES. The criteria here are:

The candidates in this section have declared their candidacies and meet one or more of the following criteria: campaign has received substantial major media coverage; current or previous holder of significant elected office (president, vice president, governor, U.S. senator, U.S. representative); have been included in at least five national polls.

If Wikipedia changes the structure of the page for the 2028 primaries, I will fall back to the criteria "any declared candidate with a wikipedia page".

When the primaries have concluded, all other options will resolve NO.

See also: @/DanMan314/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-pre

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Ted Cruz, followed by Marco Rubio and Ron Desantis are most likely. See the market for live updates (59 traders, as of Aug 20, 2026).