Will the wild population of the Sumatran Rhinoceros (Dicerorhinus sumatrensis) become extinct by 2100?

Question

This market focuses on the risk of extinction of the wild population of the Sumatran Rhinoceros. It will resolve YES, if the Sumatran Rhinoceros is declared Extinct in the Wild or Extinct by the IUCN by 2100, or earlier. It will also resolve YES, if there is other strong evidence in 2100 that the wild population is extinct. The market will resolve NO, if there is strong evidence in 2100, that the wild population of the Sumatran Rhinoceros persists.

For more information about the species, see:

IUCN assessment

Wikipedia

For comparison, the market about full extinction risk, including captive animals:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ConservationForecasts/will-the-sumatran-rhinoceros-dicero?play=true)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 88% chance (3 traders, as of Jun 14, 2025).