Will the wild population of the California Condor (Gymnogyps californianus) become Extinct by 2100?

Question

This market focuses on the extinction risk of the wild population of the California Condor, a species that is classified as “Critically Endangered” on the IUCN Red List (last assessment: 2020). It will resolve YES, if the species is declared Extinct in the Wild or Extinct by the IUCN by 2100, or earlier. It will also resolve YES, if there is other strong evidence in 2100 that the wild population is extinct. The market will resolve NO, if there is strong evidence in 2100, that the wild population of the California Condor persists.

For more information about the species, see:

Wikipedia

IUCN Red List assessment

iNaturalist

Number of wild and captive Condors

For comparison, here the market about the complete extinction risk, including captive individuals:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ConservationForecasts/will-the-california-condor-gymnogyp?play=true)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 37% chance (6 traders, as of Jun 14, 2025).