Will the wild population of the Brown Rat (Rattus norvegicus) become extinct by 2100?

Question

This market focuses on the extinction risk of the wild population of the Brown Rat. It will resolve YES, if the Brown Rat is declared Extinct in the Wild or Extinct by the IUCN by 2100, or earlier. It will also resolve YES, if there is other strong evidence in 2100 that the wild population is extinct. The market will resolve NO, if there is strong evidence in 2100, that the wild population of the Brown Rat persists.

For more information about the species, see:

IUCN assessment

Wikipedia

For comparison, here the market about full extinction risk, including captive individuals:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ConservationForecasts/will-the-brown-rat-aka-common-rat-r?play=true)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 2% chance (7 traders, as of Jan 29, 2026).