Will the wild population of Cozumel Thrasher (Toxostoma guttatum) become Extinct by 2100?

Question

This market focuses on the extinction risk of the wild population of the Cozumel Thrasher, a bird species that is classified as “Critically Endangered” on the IUCN Red List (last assessment: 2020). The last confirmed sighting of the species was in 2004. The market will resolve YES, if the species is declared Extinct in the Wild or Extinct by the IUCN by 2100, or earlier. It will also resolve YES, if there is other strong evidence in 2100 that the wild population is extinct. The market will resolve NO, if there is strong evidence in 2100, that the wild population of the species persists.

For more information about the species, see:

IUCN Red List assessment

Wikipedia

Observations on iNaturalist

For comparison, here the market about the complete extinction risk, including captive individuals:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ConservationForecasts/will-the-cozumel-thrasher-toxostoma)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 98% chance (3 traders, as of Feb 25, 2026).