Will the Orca, a.k.a. Killer Whale (Orcinus orca) become extinct in the current century?

Question

The Orca is a toothed whale and the largest member of the oceanic dolphin family. This market will resolve YES if the Orca is extinct in 2100. It will resolve NO if it is not extinct in 2100. Extinction is defined as the death of the last individual. Note: The market is about the species Orca, regardless of subspecies.

Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orca

IUCN Red List of Threatened Species:

https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/15421/50368125

For comparison here the market about the wild extinction risk of the species:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ConservationForecasts/will-the-wild-population-of-the-orc?play=true)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 13% chance (6 traders, as of Dec 8, 2025).