Will the North Atlantic Right Whale (Eubalaena glacialis) become extinct in the current century?

Question

The North Atlantic Right Whale is a species of balean whale native to the northern atlantic. With 200-250 mature individuals (IUCN estimate in 2020) it is probably the most endangered large whale species. This market will resolve YES if the North Atlantic Right Whale is declared extinct by the IUCN by 2100 or earlier, and NO if it is not declared extinct by the IUCN in 2100.

Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_right_whale

IUCN Red List of Threatened Species Assessment: Critically Endangered

https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/41712/178589687

For comparison here the market for the wild extinction risk, excluding captive individuals:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ConservationForecasts/will-the-wild-population-of-north-a)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 82% chance (5 traders, as of Apr 25, 2026).