Will the Chinese Pangolin (Manis pentadactyla) become extinct in the current century?

Question

The Chinese Pangolin is a pangolin species native to southern China and southeast Asia. This market will resolve YES if the Chinese Pangolin is declared extinct by the IUCN by 2100 or earlier, and NO if it is not declared extinct by the IUCN in 2100.

Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_pangolin

IUCN Red List of Threatened Species Assessment: Critically Endangered

https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/12764/168392151

For comparison, here the market about the wild extinction risk, excluding captive individuals:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ConservationForecasts/will-the-wild-population-of-the-chi-CZhAnpEUt5)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 61% chance (6 traders, as of Jun 27, 2025).