Will the Brown Rat, a.k.a. Common Rat (Rattus norvegicus) become extinct in the current century?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the Brown Rat/Common Rat is extinct in 2100. It will resolve NO if it is not extinct in 2100.

Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brown_rat

IUCN red list of threatened species:

https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/19353/165118026

For comparison here the market about the wild extinction risk of the Brown Rat:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ConservationForecasts/will-the-wild-population-of-the-bro?play=true)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 1% chance (10 traders, as of Mar 1, 2026).