Will the Black Rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis) become Extinct by 2100?

Question

This market is about the extinction risk of the Black Rhinoceros species by 2100. The market will resolve YES if the Black Rhinoceros becomes completely extinct by 2100, or earlier. It will resolve NO if it does not become extinct by 2100. Extinction is defined as the death of the last individual, including wild and captive animals.

Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_rhinoceros

IUCN red list of threatened species

https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/6557/152728945

iNaturalist

https://www.inaturalist.org/taxa/43350-Diceros-bicornis

For comparison, here the market about the wild extinction risk of the species:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ConservationForecasts/black-rhinoceros-diceros-bicornis-e?play=true)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 22% chance (15 traders, as of Aug 6, 2025).