Will the Axolotl (Ambystoma mexicanum) become extinct in the current century?

Question

The Axolotl is a species of salamander native only to lakes in the Valley of Mexico. The species is famous for their regenerative abilities. While less than 1000 individuals remain in the wild, captive Axolotls are used in scientific research and as a pets. This market will resolve YES if the Axolotl is declared extinct by the IUCN by 2100 or earlier, and NO if it is not declared extinct by the IUCN in 2100.

Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axolotl

IUCN Red List of Threatened Species Assessment: Critically endangered

https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/1095/53947343

For comparison, here the market about the wild extinction risk of the Axolotl:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ConservationForecasts/will-the-wild-population-of-the-axo?play=true)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 9% chance (5 traders, as of Oct 12, 2025).