African Savanna Elephant (Loxodonta africana) Extinct by 2100?

Question

This market focuses on the extinction risk of the African Savanna Elephant, a species classified as “Endangered” on the IUCN Red List (last assessment: 2020). Extinction is defined as the death of the last individual, including wild and cultivated individuals. The market will resolve YES, if the species is declared Extinct by the IUCN by 2100, or earlier. It will also resolve YES, if there is other strong evidence in 2100 that the species is extinct. The market will resolve NO, if there is strong evidence in 2100, that the African Savanna Elephant persists.

For more information about the species, see:

IUCN assessment

Wikipedia

iNaturalist

For comparison, here the market about the wild extinction risk of the species:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ConservationForecasts/will-the-wild-population-of-the-afr-PgR2SgsyId?play=true)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 16% chance (14 traders, as of Apr 28, 2025).